European UnionDeadline PassedNon-profit, Private Business, Research Institution, Public Institution, Other
The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts
Horizon Europe Cluster 5: Climate, Energy and Mobility
Funding Amount
€6.0M - €6.0M
Deadline
24/09/2025
Eligible Organization Types
Non-profit, Private Business, Research Institution, Public Institution, Other
Trusted by
What is the The attribution to climate change, and improved forecasting of extreme and slow-onset climate- and weather-related events and their impacts Call?
Grant Description
Projects will advance scientific attribution of climate and weather extremes by combining observations, numerical models, advanced statistical methods, artificial intelligence and large ensemble simulations. They will develop and enhance global databases of extreme events and their impacts, improve methodologies to separate climate trends from exposure and vulnerability, and enhance forecasting and climate services. The results will be operationalised for policy, preparedness, civil protection, ...
Required Results for Successful Funding
Expected Outcomes
Project results are expected to contribute to all of the following:
• Advanced understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency/intensity of climate and weather extremes (temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, pluvial and river floods, droughts, storms, compound events) and their cascading risks and impacts on human systems and ecosystems.
• Improved methodologies and tools for attributing extreme climate- and weather-related events and their impacts to anthropogenic climate change.
• Enhancement of existing or creation of new pilot global databases of extreme events, impacts and their attribution.
• Advanced knowledge of how attribution science and forecasting can be operationalised for policy purposes—informing and improving preparedness, civil protection, humanitarian planning for future extreme and slow-onset events, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience and adaptation planning.
• Advanced understanding of the causality between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency/intensity of climate and weather extremes (temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, pluvial and river floods, droughts, storms, compound events) and their cascading risks and impacts on human systems and ecosystems.
• Improved methodologies and tools for attributing extreme climate- and weather-related events and their impacts to anthropogenic climate change.
• Enhancement of existing or creation of new pilot global databases of extreme events, impacts and their attribution.
• Advanced knowledge of how attribution science and forecasting can be operationalised for policy purposes—informing and improving preparedness, civil protection, humanitarian planning for future extreme and slow-onset events, post-disaster reconstruction, resilience and adaptation planning.
Funded areas
Scope Requirements
Proposals must address all of the following:
1. Attribution science: combine observations, models and attribution methodologies to estimate how anthropogenic climate change has altered the likelihood, intensity and residual impacts of both fast- and slow-onset extreme events, including compound and cascading events.
2. Past and future interplay: quantify the interactions between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in the recent past (instrumental era) and near/mid-term future (2025–2060), including non-climate drivers and socially differentiated vulnerability patterns.
3. Data & databases: develop or contribute to robust, FAIR‐compliant extreme event and impact databases by advancing methodologies for diverse in situ and remote sensing data collection, management and sharing.
4. Trend separation: deliver methods to disentangle climate-driven trends in extremes from trends in exposure and vulnerability in both observations and model scenarios.
5. Model evaluation: assess how finer resolution, model complexity and inter-model differences affect the realism and accuracy of extreme event attribution; participate in multi-model/intercomparison approaches (e.g., ISIMIP) with appropriate downscaling and bias corrections.
6. Forecasting & climate services: leverage advances in attribution to improve forecasting of extremes and their impacts, contributing to operational climate services.
7. Operationalisation: co-design attribution and forecasting tools for disaster preparedness, civil protection, humanitarian aid and adaptation planning (e.g., early warning systems, nature-based solutions, emergency relief), with due regard for Global South challenges.
8. Climate justice & policy integration: ensure the results inform equitable policies and actions, integrating climate justice principles.
9. Openness & transparency: adhere to the highest standards of transparency—sharing assumptions, protocols, code and data in compliance with FAIR principles.
10. SSH integration: involve social sciences and humanities experts and methods to maximise societal impact.
11. Collaboration & clustering: coordinate with Destination Earth, cluster with related ongoing and past projects (e.g., XAIDA, CLINT) and participate in joint networking activities.
1. Attribution science: combine observations, models and attribution methodologies to estimate how anthropogenic climate change has altered the likelihood, intensity and residual impacts of both fast- and slow-onset extreme events, including compound and cascading events.
2. Past and future interplay: quantify the interactions between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing in the recent past (instrumental era) and near/mid-term future (2025–2060), including non-climate drivers and socially differentiated vulnerability patterns.
3. Data & databases: develop or contribute to robust, FAIR‐compliant extreme event and impact databases by advancing methodologies for diverse in situ and remote sensing data collection, management and sharing.
4. Trend separation: deliver methods to disentangle climate-driven trends in extremes from trends in exposure and vulnerability in both observations and model scenarios.
5. Model evaluation: assess how finer resolution, model complexity and inter-model differences affect the realism and accuracy of extreme event attribution; participate in multi-model/intercomparison approaches (e.g., ISIMIP) with appropriate downscaling and bias corrections.
6. Forecasting & climate services: leverage advances in attribution to improve forecasting of extremes and their impacts, contributing to operational climate services.
7. Operationalisation: co-design attribution and forecasting tools for disaster preparedness, civil protection, humanitarian aid and adaptation planning (e.g., early warning systems, nature-based solutions, emergency relief), with due regard for Global South challenges.
8. Climate justice & policy integration: ensure the results inform equitable policies and actions, integrating climate justice principles.
9. Openness & transparency: adhere to the highest standards of transparency—sharing assumptions, protocols, code and data in compliance with FAIR principles.
10. SSH integration: involve social sciences and humanities experts and methods to maximise societal impact.
11. Collaboration & clustering: coordinate with Destination Earth, cluster with related ongoing and past projects (e.g., XAIDA, CLINT) and participate in joint networking activities.
Additional Conditions for Applicants
Special Conditions
- Funding mechanism: Horizon Europe lump sum grant (HORIZON-AG-LS, RIA), with beneficiaries required to deliver results within the agreed lump sum budget.
• Open science obligations: mandatory open access to any new modules, models or tools (code and data documentation) and full compliance with FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable).
• Coordination & clustering: strong encouragement to connect, coordinate and participate in joint activities with other projects under this topic; collaboration with Destination Earth and clustering with projects such as XAIDA and CLINT.
• International cooperation: encouraged, especially with Global South partners for capacity building in disaster risk reduction and climate resilience; follow the Horizon Europe list of participating low- to middle-income countries.
• SSH and participatory research: effective contribution of social sciences and humanities disciplines, inclusion of SSH experts/institutions, and use of citizen science and other participatory research forms.
• Admissibility & eligibility: proposals must comply with page limits, layout and eligible country rules as per General Annexes A, B, C, D, E, F and G; follow the detailed application form and evaluation templates in the Funding & Tenders Portal.
• Ethical and regulatory compliance: adhere to EU financial regulations, legal and operational capacity requirements, and model grant agreement stipulations (including external audit rights, grant management rules, etc.).
• Open science obligations: mandatory open access to any new modules, models or tools (code and data documentation) and full compliance with FAIR principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable).
• Coordination & clustering: strong encouragement to connect, coordinate and participate in joint activities with other projects under this topic; collaboration with Destination Earth and clustering with projects such as XAIDA and CLINT.
• International cooperation: encouraged, especially with Global South partners for capacity building in disaster risk reduction and climate resilience; follow the Horizon Europe list of participating low- to middle-income countries.
• SSH and participatory research: effective contribution of social sciences and humanities disciplines, inclusion of SSH experts/institutions, and use of citizen science and other participatory research forms.
• Admissibility & eligibility: proposals must comply with page limits, layout and eligible country rules as per General Annexes A, B, C, D, E, F and G; follow the detailed application form and evaluation templates in the Funding & Tenders Portal.
• Ethical and regulatory compliance: adhere to EU financial regulations, legal and operational capacity requirements, and model grant agreement stipulations (including external audit rights, grant management rules, etc.).
Important dates
Open from: 06/05/2025
Deadline:24/09/2025
Application period has ended
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